Can AOL Recover? | Tech Analyst Jeff Kagan

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Jeff Kagan

Tech Analyst

Atlanta, GA, August 10, 2011 — Yesterday, after reporting a loss and cutting its earnings outlook America Online lost around 25% of their market value.

CEO Tim Armstrong has the fight of his life on his hands.

AOL was one of the early pioneers of the web in the 1990’s along with Prodigy, Yahoo and countless others. All these early companies are either struggling or have failed.

The Wave rose then fell. AOL rode the Wave for a long time. That Wave was growing during 1990s, and peaked during the early 2000’s. It has been on the downside during the last decade. The company has not recovered with a next Wave. Not yet.

That is the only success secret any company has. Understanding the Wave. Waves don’t last forever. Its up to companies to understand the lifespan of their Wave and to create the next Wave before the one they are riding collapses.

This story is repeated with so many companies and it is a part of today’s business cycle. The Wave grows, then peaks, then declines over several years. Some Waves last a long time and others are much shorter.

What are the chances that AOL will find and create the next successful Wave to recover and rebuild?

That is the question that has been asked for so many years. We have seen so many attempts, so much positive energy, however we have not seen success yet.

I hope AOL can create the next growth Wave that will benefit the workers and investors. They keep trying and that is the good part of this story.

As long as they keep trying there is hope.