Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/10/2012 -- BMI View: Per-capita spending on pharmaceuticals in Bahrain is expected to almost double in the 10 years to 2021, from some US$182 calculated for 2011, but will still remain a fraction of that in developed-country terms. Many multinational drug firms and other investors may continue to avoid Bahrain as the small size of the market will limit the potential return on their investment, especially given the unresolved political situation and the emergence of local manufacturing. Still, spending will generally remain driven by the expanding population, increasing consumption of medicines, government programmes targeting non-communicable diseases, significant expansion of healthcare facilities and the growing cost of medical imports.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: BHD91mn (US$240mn) in 2011 to BHD96mn (US$255mn) in 2012; +6.1% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower from Q312, on account of macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: BHD418mn (US$1.11bn) in 2011 to BHD448mn (US$1.19bn) in 2012; +7.3% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower from Q312, on account of macroeconomic factors and new historical data.
- Medical devices: BHD26mn (US$68mn) in 2011 to BHD27mn (US$73mn) in 2012; +6.7% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower from Q312, on account of macroeconomic factors.

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Risk/Reward Rating: In the Q412 version of our proprietary Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix for the Middle East and Africa (MEA), Bahrain is still ranked seventh out of the 30 markets surveyed in the region. The country's composite score also stands at an unchanged 54.9, although the country's longer term potential remains weighted down by its small population numbers. On the other hand, Bahrain's well-developed business environment and demographic and epidemiological trends will continue providing commercial opportunities for innovative drugmakers. Globally, Bahrain ranks 36th out of the 95 markets assessed in total using our RRR model, up from 38th in Q312.

Key Trends And Developments

- The authorities are increasingly targeting lifestyles that have led to the increase of long-term health problems. To this end, in August 2012, Bahrain officially inaugurated its first 'Healthy People' clinic, which will inform patients on healthy lifestyle choices. Around the same time, the government launched a new anti-smoking campaign, which has been approved across the wider Gulf states region.
- In July 2012, Japanese drugmaker SBI Pharmaceuticals was reported to have plans to construct a new plant in Bahrain. Around the same time, ArabianBusiness reported that Innovest will construct the Gulf Biotic insulin plant at the Salman Industrial City. The production is expected to start in two years' time, with the output to be in the region of 26mn unites of vials and cartridges per annum.

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