Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/08/2014 -- We hold a cautious outlook towards the Bangladesh agriculture sector. The latest finding of high levels of toxic substances in poultry feed bring much cause for concern has it reflects on the low food safety standards employed by the country, even in the country's largest agriculture sector. Indeed, structural problems still plague the industry. In the medium term for example, the frequent occurrences of strikes, or hartals and road blockages will keep our optimism for the industry at bay as these often aggravate the logistical challenges of food transportation within the country, causing the biggest hurt to the farmers.

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Over the long term, we believe that there is much more room for growth and improvement in sub-sectors such as grains and livestock. That said, as the agriculture sector in Bangladesh employs close to 70% of the working population but contributes to only 20% of the country's GDP; there is an obvious need for improvement in efficiency of operations.GM food policy is also an interesting area to look out for as Bangladesh is undoubtedly one of the most open Asian countries to GM food cultivation.

Key Forecasts

Rice production growth to 2017/18: 10.5% to reach 37.5mn tonnes. Increased production yields as farmers purchase and plant more hybrid rice varieties should boost this growth.

Sugar consumption growth to 2017/18: 31.7% growth to 2.2mn tonnes. While consumption growth has leveled off somewhat owing to the high price of sugar, over the longer term we expect rising per capita income in Bangladesh to continue to drive demand as consumers have more money to spend on non-essential food purchases.

Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 5.8% to 178,000 tonnes. Better economic conditions and higher disposable incomes will help to drive demand for meat. Better disease control is also expected to support the recovery of the sector.

2014 real GDP growth: 5.7%, down from 6.0% in 2013. Predicted to average 6.2% from 2014 to 2018.

2014 consumer...

The Bangladesh Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Bangladesh Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

Executive Summary

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Bangladesh.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2017 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

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