Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/26/2014 -- We anticipate that growth in Brazil's freight transport volumes will outperform the Latin American giant's real GDP growth in 2014 and over our medium-term forecast period (2014-2018), across all modes. Continued growth in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nation's mining and agribusiness sectors will ensure that the road, rail and ports sectors will continue to experience healthy expansion, while air freight will benefit from the growing demands of the country's expanding middle class. Further, the sector will benefit from Brazil's role as a major exporter of a host of commodities.
Nevertheless, there remain serious challenges to growth, and hence risks to our outlook. These stem from both the physical side - whether infrastructure development in the country will be sufficient to support our projected growth rates; and the human - the ports sector is already undergoing a wave of industrial unrest as workers contest the government's proposed ports privatisation moves. We believe that Brazil's wider economic recovery will falter this year and thus are revising down our 2014 real GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.0%, below our 2013 estimate of 2.3% growth.
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Key Industry Data
- Air freight tonnes to grow 5.4% in 2014 to reach 1.81mn tonnes. Over the medium term, to 2018, we predict that growth will average 6.5% a year.
- Total tonnage throughput at the port of Santos to grow 9.0% in 2014 to reach 124.3mn tonnes. To 2018, we predict average annual growth of 6.3%.
- Rail freight tonnes to grow by 1.8% in 2014 to reach 477mn tonnes. To 2018, we predict average annual growth of 2.4%.
Key Industry Trends
AF-KLM Martinair Cargo Launches New Brasilia Service
Air France-KLM-Martinair Cargo is expanding operations with the launch of a new scheduled belly cargo service to Brasilia, Brazil. The group is also boosting freight capacity out of Mumbai, India. The new services are part of the group's commitment to support the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry....
The Brazil Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Brazil Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
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