Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/02/2014 -- We are maintaining our 2014 forecasts and long-term forecasts for power generation in Brazil, as ou r assumptions remain relevant. Hydroelectric power accounts for, and will continue to account for, the key source of power supply in Brazil. Representing 78.89 % of electricity generating capacity of the country , hydroelectricity however remain s controversial - with stoppages commonplace - as illustrated by recent court rulings and unreliable - with generating capacity fluctuating between wet and dry years . Frequent droughts have pushed up spot electricity prices, with the 2014 season being one of the worst on record. These weather developments have the potential for economic drag and political implications. In addition, m any of Brazil's rivers are far from populated cities, adding expense to projects as lengthy transmission networks are required. It is of little surprise, then, that the government is seeking to diversify the electricity mix and we expect it to develop more thermal capacity to provide base load electricity, with natural gas being the fuel of choice . That said, we believe although the share of hydropower in the en e rgy mix will decline by the end of our forecast scenario, it will be continue to be the dominant fuel for electricity generation of the country.
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With Brazil facing a key power deadline - the country will host the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games in the next three years - the government is keen to invest in its power sector to ensure its electricity sector is up to the challenge of being under a global spotlight. It has launched a series of tenders for power auctions during 2013, and will finish the year with six hydroelectric power projects, opening for bids in December. We stress, however, that the repeated delays to other hydroelectric power projects in the country may deter potential bidders - Brazil's complex bureaucratic processes will do little to attract investors.
The Brazil Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Brazil Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Brazil's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
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