Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 11/29/2012 -- The Brazil Tourism Report examines the significant long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, especially with the country hosting the football World Cup in 2014 and then the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016. However, we also flag up short-term concerns about the lack of adequate nationwide airport infrastructure and hotel room supply in major Brazilian cities, both of which pose clear challenges to the short-term development of the local tourism sector.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the Brazilian tourism sector (airlines and hotel chains), as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the local market at the present time.
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Looking at trends in the first eight months of 2012, international disembarkations - which are released monthly by the Ministry of Tourism and serve as a proxy for tourist arrivals in the absence of this data being released by the ministry - increased by 4.23% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January-August 2012 to 6,248,454. Domestic disembarkations are also on an upward trajectory, rising by 8.51% y-o-y in January- May to 56,724,122.
The disembarkation data from the Ministry of Tourism covers all arrivals, including business, leisure and people visiting family and friends. However, whatever the purpose of travel, the data shows the overall trend in tourism remains positive as of mid-2012, which will continue to benefit airlines and hotels operating in Brazil. BMI forecasts of a 21% annual increase in tourist arrivals for 2012, but we warn that the risks are now slightly to the downside given the relatively low increase in international disembarkations over the first eight months of 2012.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- BMI has extended the forecast period for tourist arrivals to 2017. BMI believes Brazil will be welcoming over 9.2mn tourists by the end of this period, with strong growth in 2014-2016, reflecting the likely boost to tourist numbers provided by the World Cup and the Olympics .
- BMI believes the significant investment in Brazil announced in September 2012 by French hotel chain Accor, which aims to open about 90 new properties in the country by 2016, is extremely positive for the sector.
- BMI believes loss-making low-cost carrier Gol will come under more pressure from increased competition in the Brazilian aviation market over the coming months, with the airline being squeezed by new regional giant Latam Airlines and rapidly growing smaller rivals such as TRIP and Avianca Brazil.
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