Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/12/2014 -- Core Views:

- Bulgaria's economy will see growth accelerate in light of higher public spending and elevated export growth. However, elevated political risk will dampen fixed investment and household spending in the economy.
- Political risk is threatening to undermine Bulgaria's sovereign credentials, which could further derail the country's convergence process with the EU and cloud the economic outlook over the coming years.
- Stronger manufactured goods exports to Europe and the prospect of rising remittance flows following the lifting of travel restrictions in the EU for Bulgarian nationals, informs our view that the current account is set to remain in surplus for the foreseeable future.
- Bulgaria's exchange rate peg to the euro will remain comfortably in place, as an internal devaluation has seen the economy correct its external imbalances. A current account surplus and rising foreign reserves suggest that the peg faces few risks over the coming years.

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Major Forecast Changes:

- We revised up our current account surplus forecast from 0.7% of GDP to 2.1% in 2014 and 1.6% in 2015 from our previous forecast of 0.5%.

Key Risk To Outlook:

- We note that the near-term risks are to the downside, given the possibility of another early election this year and the ongoing legislative deadlock.
- With economic growth set to accelerate over the coming quarters, our current projections for Bulgaria's current account may be underestimating the prospect of stronger domestic demand and higher import growth over the course of 2014 and 2015.

The Bulgaria Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Bulgaria and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Bulgaria's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of Bulgaria's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Bulgaria's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Bulgaria, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Bulgaria Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: >Economic Outlook, >Political Outlook, >

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