Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 03/05/2013 -- BMI View: The major players in Asian power supply are clamouring to invest in Cambodia, with the result that huge capacity expansion can be expected from around 2015, as hydro, gas and coal-based schemes are introduced. This should leave the country with plentiful spare generation, even if annual electricity consumption grows at an average rate of 13.2% per annum over our 10-year forecast period to 2021. Neighbouring Vietnam, which will finance a number of power projects, plans to make good use of Cambodia's potential export capability, as does Thailand if a major coal-fired scheme comes to fruition.
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Hydropower expansion is already under way and there is a long queue of potential projects with strong regional backing. Several are set to proceed, with a surge in hydro-based supply likely from around 2016. Domestic gas resources could contribute additional capacity, while the utilisation of renewables is set to rise rapidly from a low base. New coal-fired stations are also in the planning stage, with Cambodia open to the long-term possibility of nuclear energy.
Key trends and developments in the Cambodian electricity market:
- Cambodia's Royal Group and China's Hydrolancang were given the go-ahead in November 2012 to commence construction on the Lower Se San 2 hydropwer plant. The design and construction of the project will see electricity exported to Vietnam. The project is expected to be completed in 5 years, in the latter stages of 2017.
- During the period 2012-2021, Cambodia's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 24.0%, reaching 10.7TWh. Driving this growth is a new gas-fired scheme that is in the pipeline and should enter service during the forecast period, as well as a massive hydropower expansion programme that includes several dams with capacities exceeding 100MW.
- Following anticipated real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2012, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 6.6% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the 2012 level of 14.5mn to 16.1mn during the period to 2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 2.49TWh in 2012 to 7.69TWh by 2021. During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 13.2%.
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