Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/07/2014 -- Grain production will fall in Canada in 2014/15, as logistical problems during the 2013/14 season have resulted in high stocks of wheat, corn and barley. The country's livestock industry is well placed to post strong growth in 2014/15 and beyond, while we believe that the Canadian beef and pork industries will gain the most from having signed the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement in October 2013. The dairy management system, however, could be under pressure.

- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 17.7% to 32.0mn tonnes. Liberalisation of the Canadian Wheat Board will increase competition between exporters and encourage farmers to boost production.

- Sugar consumption growth to 2018: -3.9% to 1.2mn tonnes. We are moderately bearish on sugar consumption in the medium term on the back of already high per capita consumption and changing eating habits towards healthier options.

- Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 12.2% to 1.2mn tonnes. This will be due to consumers' perception that poultry is a healthier meat, along with increasing export opportunities. High poultry prices and the recent signing of the EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement are also expected to stimulate production.

- 2014 real GDP growth: 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). An increase compared with 2.0% in 2013.

- Consumer price inflation: 1.7% y-o-y in 2014. An increase compared with 0.9% in 2013.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 4.1% y-o-y increase to US$48.2bn in 2013/14. Forecast to decrease by an average of 0.1% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

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Industry Outlook

Traditional grains such as wheat, canola and barley will all suffer y-o-y production declines in 2014/15, as farmers switch to more specialist crops as stocks in the former group remain high. We forecast 2014/15 wheat and barley production to decline by 18.9% y-o-y and 20.4% y-o-y to 30.0mn tonnes and 8.0mn tonnes respectively. In...

The Canada Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Canada Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.

- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.

- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Canada.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

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