Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/24/2014 -- We maintain our cautious view for China's shipping sector. While the outlook for China's traditional economic growth drivers such as heavy industry and real estate construction remains cloudy, the outlook facing the more consumer-focussed industries is relatively strong over the medium term. Overall, though, as the traditional sectors remain the dominant drivers of the economy, we remain cautious in our real GDP growth outlook. We expect the economy to expand by 7.1% in 2014, before slowing to average 6.1% over the next five years and caution that there are downside risks to this forecast.
After a decade-long cycle of high commodities prices partly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, the ongoing slowdown of the country's economy and rebalancing away from metal-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors raises questions over the future of China's commodities demand and import needs, with a possible negative knock-on effect on dry bulk imports in particular. We also caution that the inevitable bursting of the ongoing credit bubble could serve to undermine the profitability of the consumer-focused industries.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2014 Port of Shanghai tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.5%, with container growth of 4.1% forecast for the year.
- 2014 Port of Shenzhen container throughput forecast to grow 0.4%, with average growth of 1.4% during our forecast period.
- 2014 real trade growth forecast at 7.23% - a considerable increase from 2013's estimated 4.9%.
Key Industry Trends
Valemax Strategy Further Imperilled
We believe the recent decision by China's Ministry of Transport to ban ships greater than 250,000DWT from docking in Chinese ports is likely to lead to Vale experiencing difficulties in expanding its market share in China and increases the risk it loses out to Australian rivals. The decision effectively solidifies China's ban on the 400,000DWT Valemax fleet, a major blow to Vale which primarily built the fleet...
The China Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in China.
BMI's China Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in China.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for China to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Chinese shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in China through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.
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