Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/10/2014 -- Denmark is likely to remain an oil and gas net exporter over our forecast period, despite production decline. The government is confident the country will sustain its position as a net exporter of oil and gas until the end of the decade. We expect a partial recovery in oil and gas volumes over the medium term. However, we forecast that overall production will decline in the long term and that exports will become increasingly thin by the end of our forecast period despite a small drop in consumption.

The main trends and developments in Denmark's oil and gas sector are:

- We are forecasting oil reserves to slowly decline from current levels of 805mn barrels (bbl) of oil to approximately 645mn bbl by the end of our forecasting period in 2023. There is upside risk to our reserves forecast from New World's Danica Jutland prospects and from Wintershall's Hibonite discovery. We expect gas reserves to stagnate throughout the forecast period. We estimate that gas reserves will be approximately 40bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2018, from their current level of 43bcm. However, upside risk exists: Denmark could have sizeable shale gas resources. In December 2014, the US Geological Survey estimates that the Alum Shale in Denmark could contain about 193bcm of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas. This compares very favourably to Denmark's current gas reserves estimates of about 40bcm at the time of writing.
- We forecast that Denmark will most likely continue to be a net exporter of oil throughout our forecast period. In the short term, we expect Danish oil output to stabilise and perhaps to slightly increase from 2016 to 2018 to reach nearly 200,000 barrels per day (b/d). This will be thanks to new developments and work to increase output at mature fields. Past 2018, however, field depletion rates will most likely overtake the above-mentioned additional production, and we once again expect to see declining Danish oil production. We forecast Denmark's production to fall to 171,250b/d by 2023. This will come very close to our forecasted total petroleum consumption of about 145,500b/d in 2023.
- We estimate that in 2013, Denmark produced about 4.9bcm of gas, down from 5.6bcm in 2012 according to Danish Energy Agency oil and gas statistics. We forecast that Denmark will most likely continue to be a net exporter of natural gas up to and including 2023, although exporting in decreasing quantities to the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany as a result of declining production. In 2013-2015, we project gas production to continue its decline. Similarly to oil production, however, we forecast a temporary increase in gas production from 2015 to 2017, where production will rise from 4.75bcm in 2014 to a peak of 5.61bcm in 2017, Past 2017, we expect Denmark's gas production to once again decline. The significant Svane gas discovery is unlikely to be developed, and is therefore not taken into account in our forecast.

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