Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/20/2014 -- Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer and will benefit from the recent sell-off in grain prices. The country is in the process of reforming its food subsidy programme in an effort to make the process more efficient. We believe that particularly good growth prospects exist in the country's livestock and dairy industries, as cattle herds continue to recover from a foot and mouth outbreak in 2012. These sectors will also benefit from lower global grain prices relative to the last several years, and an improving domestic economic situation.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 9.8% to 9.3mn tonnes. This will largely be the result of government efforts to increase area planted and yields in the coming years.

- Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 5.6% to 3.0mn tonnes. This will be driven by growth in the local confectionery and soft drinks industries on the back of population and income growth.

- Beef & veal production growth to 2017/18: 14.0% to 325,000 tonnes. The recovery of herds - linked to imports of live cattle, systematic vaccination of cattle and lower feed prices - will help production recover over the medium term.

- Real GDP growth: 2.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (flat at 2.2% y-o-y in 2013).

- Consumer inflation: average 10.5% y-o-y in 2014 (up from 9.4% y-o-y in 2013).

- BMI Universe Agribusiness Market Value: 6.5 % y-o-y decrease to USD28.6bn in 2013/14; forecast to increase on average 3.2% annually between 2013/14 and 2017/18.

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Industry Outlook

Wheat production will increase by 3.5% y-o-y to reach 9.0mn tonnes in 2014/15, while corn output will decline by 0.9% y-o-y and will come in at 5.8mn tonnes. Wheat production will increase as the area devoted to the crop has risen at the expense of corn, while yields in many areas have also risen due to more efficient water-using practices.

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