Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/09/2014 -- BMI View: Egypt remains the world's largest wheat importer, though recent price elevation as a result of the Ukraine crisis, combined with the weak pound and low foreign reserves may threaten import growth. As a result of this dynamic, the country imposed a wheat import ban until June 2014, and is in the process of reforming its food subsidy programme, in an effort to make the process more efficient. The sugar industry is benefiting from a tight local market and higher domestic prices, while the cotton industry is likely to be helped by the recent recovery in prices. The livestock and dairy industries are recovering from the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, especially in a context of lower grain prices.
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- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 9.4% to 9.3mn tonnes. This will largely be the result of government efforts to increase area planted and yields in the coming years.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 14.1% to 3.2mn tonnes. This will be driven by growth in the local confectionery and soft drinks industries on the back of population and income growth.
- Beef & veal production growth to 2017/18: 33.4% to 380,100 tonnes. The recovery of herds - linked to imports of live cattle, systematic vaccination of cattle and lower feed prices - will help production recover over the medium term.
- Real GDP growth: 2.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 (up from 1.9% y-o-y in 2013).
- Consumer inflation: average 9.5% y-o-y in 2014 (up from 9.4% y-o-y in 2013).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 6.0% y-o-y decrease to USD27.5bn in 2013/14; forecast to decline on average 0.7% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.
We have revised our estimate for 2013/14 wheat production in Egypt in line with local industry and official sources. We now forecast wheat output to reach 8.8mn tonnes (from a previous forecast of 8.5mn tonnes) in 2013/14, up 3.5% y-o-y. This increase...
The Egypt Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Egypt Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
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