Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/26/2014 -- We believe Estonia is on a sustainable growth trajectory following the deep recession brought on by the eurozone debt crisis, with economic growth to average 3.1% from 2015-2017 before gradually settling towards long-term trend growth of 2.7%. Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth over the medium term, as sluggish regional economic activity hinders faster export growth
Estonia's external accounts pose few risks to macroeconomic stability. Low current account deficits in the coming years will be comfortably financed, and will not be associated with an unsustainable build up of short-term foreign liabilities, as in the pre-financial crisis era.
We maintain a positive view towards Estonia's fiscal trajectory, with total public debt to remain the lowest in Europe by a comfortable margin.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our 2014 growth forecast, from 2.8% to 2.0%, as a sluggish recovery in external demand is weighing on the short-term growth outlook. However, we continue to expect a more robust recovery in 2015, as economic recoveries in the eurozone and Nordics gain traction and begin to spur higher regional trade volumes.
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Key Risks To Outlook
As a member of the eurozone, Estonia remains exposed to any renewed flare-up of the sovereign debt crisis.
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