Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/27/2014 -- According to the Hong Kong Department of Transport (HKDT), vehicle sales for the first four months of 2014 came in at 15,040 units, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). This figure consists of new private car registrations, new goods vehicle registrations and new private light bus registrations.
In line with our view, the expansion of subsidies to replace older pre-Euro IV commercial vehicles (CVs), which are contributing to the city's pollution, continues to have limited impact, due to affordability issues ( see 'Subsidy Indifference To Hit CV Sales', March 25).
The Hong Kong government aims to replace roughly 80,000 pre-Euro IV CVs (including franchised buses) by 2019, which will entail average CV sales of over 14,000 units annually from now until 2019. However, with current annual CV sales at half that level, the government will fall short of its initial target.
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However, we acknowledge that CV sales have been on a broad uptrend since April 2013 as some consumers have chosen to take advantage of the subsidies. The better than expected new registrations in the CV segment have prompted us to upgrade our full year CV sales growth forecast to 14.9%, to 6,893 units, from a 5.5% contraction previously.
The passenger car segment has also seen strong growth for the first four months of the year, with sales rising 5.5% in the period, to 12,654 units. We have therefore bumped up our full-year car sales growth forecast to 3.5%, to 39,529 units, from 2.0% previously.
These revisions to our segment forecasts have revised our 2014 total vehicle sales forecast to 46,422 units, an increase of 5.1% versus 1.4% growth previously. We highlight that despite the strong start in 4M14, our Country Risk team's downbeat outlook on private consumption on the back of China's ongoing economic slowdown, makes us confident to keep our full-year sales forecast below the growth achieved in 4M14 ( see 'Downbeat Q114 GDP Print Highlights Growth Risks', May 28).
The Hong Kong Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Hong Kong Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Hong Kong.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Hong Kong to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Hong Kong automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Hong Kong automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Hong Kong.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI?s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
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