Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/20/2013 -- The Hong Kong Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Hong Kong's economic outlook of falling property prices.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Hong Kong retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the slowdown in the eurozone and US on the Hong Kong consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Hong Kong retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Hong Kong comes fourth out of seven in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms significantly for risk.
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Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 28% between 2013 and 2017, from US$0.31bn to US$0.39bn as locally involved companies take advantage of growth in the mainland Chinese drug market.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government's cost-cutting initiatives, which will benefit the generic drugs sector, and the strategic framework for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases, which should stimulate prescription and patented segments.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI is maintaining its bearish take on the Hong Kong economy, and sees real GDP growth coming in at 2.2% through 2012, versus consensus expectations for 3.0% expansion. We expect this economic weakness to extend into 2013, with economic growth seeing a marginal acceleration to 3.5%. We are of the view that trade weakness, which weighed heavily on the economy in the first quarter of 2012, is likely to see further downward pressure in the quarters ahead, and consequently expect this factor to be the dominant drag on Hong Kong's growth prospects.
- BMI expects private consumption growth to slow to 2.5% through 2012 from 4.5% in 2011, contributing 1.5 percentage points (pp) to headline expansion. We expect private consumption to be the primary drag on the economy as factors such as rising unemployment and negative wealth effects come to the fore, although we expect government infrastructure spending to provide some upshot for investment spending.
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