Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/14/2014 -- Following a year which BMI believes saw the slow recovery begin, 2014 will signal further growth across the whole freight transport sector in line with our macroeconomic forecasts for the country. Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 2.12% in 2014 following an estimated growth of 2.26% in 2013.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 1% in 2014. To the end of our forecast period to 2018, we expect the sector to defy the European Union (EU) pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region. That is not to say, however, that road freight's market share is completely safe. BMI notes that rail is the likeliest candidate in Hungary's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road, following the government of Hungary decided to construct a 113km railroad to reduce freight transit times across the country from the present four to five days to one day by 2018.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2014 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.6%
- 2014 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.7%
- 2014 Road freight is forecast to grow by 1%
- 2014 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 0.6%
- 2014 Total real trade growth is forecast at 2.1%.
Key Industry Trends
Huawei Upgrades Logistics Centre near Budapest: Chinese information and communications technology company Huawei finished upgrading a logistics centre in Biatorbagy. The upgrade resulted in the facility boosting its loading capacity to 3,000 tractor-trailers per month. Further expansion aims to allow handling the transport and storage of products destined for the European, North African, Russian, and Middle East markets.
China To Take Part In Building Serbia-Hungary Rail Link: China will take part in building a railway link between Serbia and Hungary, according to its Premier Li Keqiang.
Risks To Outlook
The Hungarian economy will continue on a gradual path to recovery, bolstered by an improving export story. Key trading partners in Central Europe are set to increase import demand in 2014 and 2015, as is Germany, Hungary's largest single export destination, creating upside risks to our forecast for the country's freight transport sector.
The major downside risk for freight operators' volumes in Hungary is slower than expected recovery in the eurozone economy, which would have a major knock-on effect on Hungarian economic activity and the likely slowing in growth of the country's exports, with Hungary's top trade partners located in Europe.
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