Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 12/06/2012 -- Following a year that saw mixed growth dynamics across different freight modes, 2012 will signal further slowdown, with only a marginal increase in freight predicted for just one of the modes.
Total trade is projected to show more moderate growth with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-onyear (y-o-y) increase of 2.56% in real terms in 2012 following a growth of 7.4% in 2011.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector despite being projected to decline by 1.5% in 2012. The sector defied the downturn and so far appears to have defied EU pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region, that is not to say, however, that road freight's market share is safe.
BMI notes that rail is the likeliest candidate in Hungary's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road. In 2012, however, rail freight, as road and inland waterway, is expected to decline in line with our view of a recession in Hungary.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.1%
- 2012 Rail freight is forecast to decrease by 1.5%
- 2012 Road freight is forecast to decrease by 1.5%
- 2012 Inland waterway freight is forecast to decrease by 1.8%
- 2012 Total real trade growth is forecast at 2.6%.
Key Industry Trends
Cargo City on Hold
As predicted, the plan to create a freight specific facility at Hungary's Budapest Airport, Cargo City, has hit the buffers. The project was dealt a blow when one of its planned clients - Hungarian flag carrier Malev - collapsed, but will now be delayed due to an increase in land tax.
Limits on Barges Traffic on the Danube
The new Hungarian law is in force since the end of April, limiting the number of cargo barges permitted on the River Danube. The limit is supposed to help the remaining barges move more freely.
Kuehne + Nagel Lands Mercedes-Benz Contract
Kuehne + Nagel is going to provide production logistics to Mercedes-Benz's new plant in Kecskemet, Hungary. The company is fully integrated in the plant's logistics from its start.
Risks to Outlook
With the eurozone economy set to contract by 0.6% in 2012, and given the growing likelihood of a further escalation in the region's sovereign debt crisis at some point in the foreseeable future, the country's external environment remains decidedly weak and Hungary's growth outlook is threatened by a number of downside risks. The major downside risk for freight operators' volumes in Hungary is the likely slowing in growth of the country's exports, with Hungary's top trade partners located in Europe.
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