Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/20/2013 -- BMI View: Hungarian information technology (IT) spending is forecast to report low single-digit growth in 2012 against the backdrop of continued retrenchment in public and private sectors. Total spending on IT products and services in 2013 is projected at around US$3.0bn, up by around 3% in dollar terms compared with the country's IT budget in 2012. Trading conditions remain challenging for IT vendors as household demand, business investment and government investment in IT products and services are restrained by deleveraging. Meanwhile, despite pent-up demand, the unstable situation in the eurozone presents significant headwinds to business investment.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: US$1.2bn in 2012 to US$1.2bn in 2013, with flat growth in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but faster growth expected after 2013 and Windows 8 and 4G/LTE mobile service roll-outs could provide a boost to sales of tablets, ultrabooks and notebooks.
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Software sales: US$729mn in 2012 to US$760mn in 2013, no change in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but in our view 2013 should see implementation of some systems upgrades previously deferred due to the bad economy.
IT services sales: US$1.0bn in 2011 to US$1.0bn in 2012, no change in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised as Hungarian corporations remain cautious, while public sector spending is weak
Risk/Reward Rating: Hungary's score is at 49.2 out of 100.0, with the difficult economic situation a drag on potential returns. Hungary places ninth in our latest RRR table, and Hungary home computer penetration is still low compared with peer group countries.
Key Trends & Developments
- Many IT spending segments are therefore expected to remain weak in 2013. Key IT verticals such as telecoms and finance have been hit by government crisis taxes. Retail is another segment that has been hit. Should the forint depreciate significantly further, consumers and private enterprises would be subject to considerable pressure, which in turn would depress spending.
- Telecoms operators reported solid growth in mobile broadband subscriptions in 2011 and this trend should help support sales of mobile connectivity devices such as tablets, which are bundled with service contracts. Credit is still tight throughout the economy however, and businesses remain cautious given the particular debt problems affecting the Hungarian economy.
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