Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/14/2014 -- We hold a positive view on India's agribusiness sector, as the country will remain an agricultural powerhouse and is likely to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops. Production growth of various commodities will be driven by strong government support and robust demand for manufactured foodstuffs. We see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as dairy, coffee and livestock. However, India will be increasingly vulnerable to exceptional weather phenomena owing to climate change effects and serious water shortages. Moreover, the country will remain prone to erratic government intervention, which seriously hampers its reputation as an international provider. As such, we see the partial liberalisation of the sugar industry as a first positive step that will incentivise production growth and investment in the sector.
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- Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 6.4% to 5.6mn 60 kg bags. Strong growth will be driven by major export potential, government support, the expansion of cultivated area and India's robust coffee consumption growth.
- Palm oil consumption growth to 2018: 22.4% to 10.3mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for the oil for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.
- Milk production to 2017/18: 18.0% to 156.9mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by improvements in breeding techniques, robust expansion of domestic consumption and increasing dairy prices, which will renew interest in dairy production as a commercial activity.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$237.0bn in 2014 (down from US$238.5bn in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 3.1% on average from 2013 to 2017).
- 2014 real GDP growth: 5.6% (up from 5.0% in 2012 and 2013; predicted to average 6.3% from 2014 to 2018).
- 2014 consumer price inflation: 5.8% (down from 7.0% in 2013 and 7.0% in 2013; forecast to average 4.5% from 2014 to 2018).
- 2014 central bank policy rate: 7.25% average (same than in 2013; forecast to average 7.25% from 2014 to 2018).
Key Revisions To Forecasts
- Sugar production in 2013/14 revised down, to 25.0 mn tonnes (compared with a previous forecast of 27.0mn tonnes). Although the monsoon was above historical averages, rains were excessive in some sugar areas. Moreover, the financial squeeze on sugar mills due to low margins and growing debt as well as the delayed start of crushing this year will limit crushing.
- Rice production forecast in 2013/14 revised down, to 104.5mn tonnes (compared with a previous estimate of 107.0mn tonnes). Various cyclones hit rice growing regions in the eastern coast in October- December, coupled with heavy rains in eastern and southern states will limit area harvested and yields.
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