The main trends and developments we highlight for Indonesia's oil and gas sector are:

- We forecast that oil and gas reserves will most likely be on a downward trend in the coming decade: oil reserves are expected to decrease from an estimate of 4.0bn barrels (bbl) of oil at the beginning of 2013 to 3.7bn bbl in 2018, falling further still to 3.4bn bbl by 2023. For gas, we expect reserves levels to be stagnant as addition from exploration successes in East Kalimantan cancels out natural depletion from existing fields. Reserves are forecast to fall from 3.07tcm in 2013 to 2.9tcm in 2018, and fall further to 2.7tcm unless the pace of drilling activity picks up.
- Despite this outlook, Indonesia is a country where much below-ground potential continues to exist. If the country relaxes its nationalist stance on resources, there is considerable upside potential for both oil and gas reserves - greater drilling of its unexplored deepwater areas and its unconventional resources - coalbed methane and shale gas.
- We expect total liquids production (excluding refinery processing gains) to rise from an estimate of 913,000b/d in 2013 to 922,000b/d in 2015, owing to major fields finally coming on-stream or ramping up to their full production capacity. Thereafter, in the longer term we see oil output trending downwards to 859,000b/d in 2018 and hitting a low of 786,000b/d by 2023.
- Despite grand plans to expand the country's refining capacity, difficulty in financing greenfield projects on top of modernising old plants in a unfavourable policy environment will see limited change to Indonesia's downstream landscape. We expect its refining capacity to stay stagnant at around 1.12mn b/d from 2015 through to the end of our forecast period. Total refined oil product output is expected to rise initially from an estimate of 972,000b/d in 2013 to 990,600b/d in 2016 - a result of an increase in output from modernised Cilacap and Balikpapan. However, growing inefficiencies in older plants could reverse this uptrend as utilisation rate falls, thereby leading to a slide in production downwards to 969,900b/d by 2023.
- 2013 demand is estimated to have remained stagnant at about 1.38mn b/d but expect to an increase again as the conclusion of the 2014 elections provide more certainty with regard to the country's macroeconomic policies, thereby supporting consumption. This could lead to consumption of about 1.44mn b/d in 2018 and 1.57mn b/d by 2023. With demand continuing to outstrip supply, the country's import requirement of fuel products will continue to rise, from an estimate of 411,970b/d in 2013 to 460,950b/d in 2018, and to 598,480b/d by 2023.

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