Nigeria's hydrocarbon sector continues to struggle amid a worsening political and business environment. Most recently, Chevron's decision to move out of the OKLNG project signals that even the large upside potential of the Nigerian gas market is not sufficient to offset the degradation in investor sentiment. The weak output flows in 2012 and 2013 were the consequence of flooding, repeated oil thefts and regulatory uncertainty. We estimate that total oil production for 2013 declined to about 2.4mn barrels per day, and expect production to remain feeble over the coming year. Output should ramp-up more significantly as many large fields come online after 2015, more than offsetting current depletion. Adoption of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), which we do not expect before the Nigerian 2015 election, would be a strong signal for investors that Nigeria's hydrocarbons sector is ready to move forward. Without the adoption of the PIB, further offshore project delays could occur, resulting in a stagnation of Nigerian production.