Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/10/2014 -- BMI View: Financial sanctions designed to pressure Tehran over its nuclear programme are playing havoc with Iran's ability to import goods. Food price inflation is soaring, leading to a serious decrease in meat consumption. The use of barter in place of regular trade can be seen as a feasible, albeit temporary, way of circumventing sanctions to meet demand. Although President Hassan Rouhani, who is more moderate than his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will most likely adopt a more conciliatory stance with the West, many sanctions are expected to remain in place. Over the longer term, we believe that the continued investment by the government to improve infrastructure - such as the improvement of irrigation systems - will help the country to turn away from its backward agrarian system and will yield results in terms of better-quality grains. We are especially upbeat in our outlook for grains and sugar production.
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- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 11.1% to 15.3mn tonnes. Wheat yields are expected to improve owing to the modernisation of technology, including hardier grains variants, greater access to relevant inputs and a larger area of the country benefiting from new irrigation facilities.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 25.0% to 2.5mn tonnes. Sugar demand will be mainly driven by population growth.
- Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 14.1% to 900,400 tonnes. Growth will be driven by domestic demand and the effects of increased investment.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD9.25bn in 2014 (down 4.1% compared with 2013, growth forecast to average 1.6% annually between 2014 and 2018).
- 2014 real GDP growth: 2.8% (up from -2.9% in 2013; predicted to average 3.3% from 2014-2018).
- 2014 consumer price inflation: 28.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) (down from 36.0% y-o-y in 2013; predicted to average 15.4% y-o-y from 2014-2018).
The outlook for...
The Iran Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Iran Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
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