Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/12/2014 -- The significant 17.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in defence spending for 2015 is due to an increase in the value of the local currency. A second extension to the interim deal on the nuclear program in November 2013 seems the best outcome if the parties fail to reach a deal within the context of the P5+1 talks by the November 24 deadline. A short term non-admitted tactical cooperation to combat the Islamic State (IS) between Iran and the West is possible, long-term cooperation is questionable.

Iran's annual defence budget is modest in comparison with that of its neighbours Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. Details of the defence budget are only summarily divulged to public scrutiny if at all. For 2015, our forecasts estimate defence spending to reach USD11.6bn, which fades in comparison with the USD59.5bn forecast for Saudi Arabia. We think that despite the severe economic conditions, Iran will attempt to maintain its defence spending constant at 2.2-2.3% of GDP over the coming years in view of its regional and international security environment.

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As reflected in our security risk ratings, we think that the rise of the IS has left Iran more vulnerable to international terrorism. On this issue, Iran is fighting on the same side as the West whereas Saudi Arabia and Turkey have been attributed blame for the rise of the group. We are inclined to think that while we may see short-term non-admitted tactical cooperation between Iran and the West in order to fight the IS, long-term cooperation is unlikely.

The progress made to date with regards to international relations between Iran and the US is noteworthy. However, in Q314, Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) slowed. Our view is that if the parties fail to reach agreement before the November 24 deadline, extending the interim agreement for a second time rather than allowing the talks to collapse is a preferential outcome. We think that diplomatic efforts can freeze the...

The Iran Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Iran Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Iranian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Iranian defence and security market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.

- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

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