Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/06/2014 -- BMI View: We expect that Iran will increase its defence expenditure in 2014 by 7.1% in US dollar terms, bringing total spending to USD10.3bn or 2.2% of GDP. We acknowledge that the country's nuclear activities will remain a point of contention with the international community, but believe that ongoing talks between Iran and Western governments have the potential to de-escalate this issue. That said, should talks fail, and if Iran were thought to be approaching the point of successfully testing a nuclear weapon, we believe an Israeli or American strike on the country's nuclear facilities would become increasingly likely.
We believe that Iran's contentious relations with the West will remain the dominant feature of its security and defence stance over the coming quarters, as has been the case consistently for the last couple of years. That said, we acknowledge that elements of Iran's security and defence position are somewhat in flux, as the administration of President Hassan Rouhani has begun to engage with the West on the issue of its controversial nuclear technology. Indeed, recent developments have been fairly positive, with tentative agreements for Iran to reduce its stockpile of uranium that is closest to weapons grade, while the West has eased some of the strict sanctions that had brought the country to its knees economically.
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The progress made to date is noteworthy, but we believe that the parties are still a long way off from a permanent agreement on the nuclear question that will satisfy unease in the US and Israel about the prospect of Iran building a nuclear weapon. As such, and until such time as there is a verification regime in place, we believe there will remain elevated risks of military conflict between Iran and the West over the question of its nuclear programme. Even if military conflict is avoided with the West, we see Iran's Shi'a-dominated state remaining at odds with many of the predominantly Sunni states in the region. We...
The Iran Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iran Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Iranian defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Iran to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Iranian defence and security market.
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