Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/29/2012 -- Sanctions on the country are continuing to bite, resulting in a fall in oil export volumes and revenues. Gas export schemes and refinery expansion projects will make little progress as international oil company (IOC) partners heed the investment embargo, meaning the overall outlook will continue to deteriorate unless there is a breakthrough in the nuclear stalemate. Meanwhile, Iran is claiming a succession of major oil and gas discoveries that, if proven, demonstrate considerable upside potential to its existing resource base.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iran's oil and gas sector:

- BMI sees Iranian oil production declining in 2012-13 owing to the effects of international sanctions on exports, although the 'end game' between Iran and the West is unpredictable at this stage. Liquids output is put at 3.37mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 and 3.35mn b/d in 2013. Assuming a successful resolution of the situation and the lifting of sanctions, we now forecast liquids output recovering to 3.74mn b/d by 2016 and to 3.90mn b/d by 2021.
- While fuel subsidy reforms have undermined the domestic oil consumption trend, we still expect the Iranian market to expand steadily, driving net crude oil exports down from 2.30mn b/d in 2011 to a low of 1.47mn b/d in 2013.
- US economic sanctions against Iran have slashed the volume of crude exported and oil revenues, the US Treasury said in mid-September 2012 as it vowed to keep up the pressure on Tehran to prevent the Iranian government from enriching uranium to make nuclear weapons. US efforts have paid off with Iranian crude exports falling to about 1mn b/d, the US Treasury said. - The outlook for sustained growth in gas exports has changed dramatically due to the impact of sanctions on foreign investment levels. For the foreseeable future, we see no progress in the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) schemes, nor the gas field projects designed to supply the fuel. Net gas exports now look set to remain at a very modest level until Iran resolves its issues with the Western world.
- China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), parent company of PetroChina, has quit Iran's South Pars project. According to Iran's Oil Ministry, CNPC employees have left the city of Assolouyeh, which is close to the offshore field. The ministry also stated that the Chinese company had delayed work on developing Phase 11 for more than 1,130 days.

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