Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/22/2012 -- Double-digit throughput growth at the primary Iranian port of Bandar Abbas appears to have come to an end, as US sanctions against the pariah state's shipping sector continue to strengthen and the EU introduces an oil embargo. The country's national shipping lines have also been facing increasing pressure in their operations. Nevertheless, we project continued growth in Iranian container shipping in the face of Western sanctions, as domestic consumer demand continues to grow.

Headline Industry Data

- 2012 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput growth forecast 1.8%, and to average 3.2% per annum to 2016.
- 2016 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 3.28mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2012 total trade real growth forecast at 1.6%, and to average 2.4% to 2016.

Key Industry Trends

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Iran Closes Hormuz- What If?

Any attempt by the Iranian regime to close the Strait of Hormuz could have severe repercussions for oil markets, shipping routes and broader regional stability. That said, the Iranian regime itself would be worst hit by a closure, as its main avenue for earning foreign currency would be eliminated. Although not our core view, in this article we explore the impact of such a scenario, and what it would take to force the Iranian government to take this course of action.

Further Sanctions Woes For Iranian Shipping

One key development that is likely to change the crude oil shipping sector in 2012 is the new EU sanctions to be imposed on the shipping of crude oil from Iran. Although the EU is not a key importer of Iranian oil, with the most part of its crude heading east to Asian markets, the insurance implications are key. According to Andrew Bardot, executive officer of the International Group of Protection & Indemnity (P&I) Clubs, it insures 95% of the global crude oil shipping fleet, and its 13 member clubs follow EU rules.

Oman Urges Iran To Return Three Rented Oil Tankers

Oman has urged Iran to return its three rented oil tankers. The tankers have been deployed within the Iranian fleet for the past two years. According to an official, Iran will return the rented oil tankers to Oman soon. Two years ago, Oman had rented 10 tankers to Iran under an agreement between National Iranian Oil Company and state-owned Oman Shipping Company. Iran presently operates 49 oil tankers with 12mn tonnes of transportation capacity for crude oil.

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