Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/20/2014 -- The ramp-up of major upstream projects over in the coming quarters will boost output in Iraq , though a challenging security situation and unresolved issues with the Kurdistan region will cause volatility in exports . Although we forecast strong growth in both oil and gas output over the next ten years , we expect delays and setbacks to continue, causing production to underperform in light of the country's raw below-ground potential. A resolution to the political situation between Baghdad and Erbil will be a key challenge to achieving production targets and long-term growth, particularly with new export infrastructure from Kurdistan to Turkey in place and the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline offline.
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We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:
- Iraqi elections took place of April 30 and our Middle East Country Risk team believe al-Maliki will win a third consecutive term. We anticipate a long period of coalition building over much of the remainder of 2014, leading to reduced political capital with which to deal with the substantial challenges facing Iraq's upstream.
- Spillover from the conflict in Syria continues to impacting western Iraq. While most of the oil production is in the more secure southern and northern regions of Iraq, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has been a major target for insurgents and unrepaired damage has seen exports stopped since March 2. This has reduced Iraq's oil export capacity by as much as 500,000b/d.
- The KRG has installed a 300,000b/d pipeline connecting oilfields in Kurdistan to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, independent of a Baghdad-controlled monitoring station. According to a Turkish minister the pipeline has been moving around 100,000b/d of oil to storage facilities at Ceyhan and the 2.5mn barrel capacity allocated for Iraqi oil has reached capacity. However, Baghdad has threatened to take legal action against any company or country involved in purchasing oil from Kurdistan,...
The Iraq Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Iraq including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Iraq Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Iraqi oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Iraq to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Iraqi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
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