Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/18/2014 -- Following nine straight quarters of contraction, Q414 saw the Italian economy expand by 0.1%, and we forecast real GDP growth in Italy to reach 0.4% and 0.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. Despite a return to positive growth this year we do not expect the economy to grow at a rate in excess of 1% over our forecast period to 2022, and both public and private sector consumption remains depressed. With one of the highest household savings rates in Europe prior to the crisis, and among the lowest private debt burdens, private consumption has not been a strong driver of GDP growth in the past decade. We do not expect this trend to change, and forecast private consumption growth of 0.3% and 0.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. This has negative implications for food and drink spending , although we do expect to see an improvement in this over our forecast period .
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Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2014 per capita food consumption = +0.7% year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013 to 2018 = +1.2%
- 2014 alcoholic drink value sales = +1.7%; CAGR 2013 to 2018 = +2.1%
- 2014 soft drink value sales = +0.9% ; CAGR 2013 to 2018 = +2.3%
- 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +0.8%; CAGR 2013 to 2018 = +1.4%
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Pernod Ricard's Q314 (March 31 2014) results were mixed. The company reported flat year-on-year (y-o-y) organic sales growth, and only the Americas saw strong revenue growth, of 5.0%, thanks to strong US and Brazilian markets. For Asia/Rest of World (RoW), the company reported a 1.0% y-o-y decline in organic sales, and European sales declined 2.0% y-o-y. Asian sales were affected by the ongoing destocking in China, while French sales were hit by a recent excise duty hike. Sluggish overall growth in Europe somewhat masked stellar growth in Eastern Europe, where organic sales grew by 9.0% y-o-y.
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The Italy Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Italy Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Italy.
- Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Italy to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Italian food and drink market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Italy through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:
Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
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