Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 10/09/2012 -- BMI View: The prospects for Japan's pharmaceutical market over the medium term are very positive. The country has one of the largest pensionable populations, healthcare is readily accessible, the government appreciates investment in biomedical research and the regulatory regime balances the requirements of the major stakeholders. The key downside risk in the world's second-largest pharmaceutical market is a negative macroeconomic adjustment, such as a domestic debt crisis, which would affect public and private spending on medical services. Headline Expenditure Projections ???? Pharmaceuticals: JPY10,157bn (US$127.4bn) in 2011 to JPY10,205bn (US$130.8bn) in 2012; +0.5% in local currency terms and +2.7% in US dollar terms. Our short-term forecast has been revised down slightly from Q212 due to greater awareness about the impact of the April 2012 medicine price cuts. ???? Healthcare: JPY39,824bn (US$499bn) in 2011 to JPY40,096bn (US$514bn) in 2012; +0.7% in local currency terms and +2.9% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised down from Q212 due to macroeconomic factors. ???? Medical Devices: JPY2,220bn (US$27.8bn) in 2011 to JPY2,240bn (US$28.7n) in 2012; +0.9% in local currency terms and +3.2% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised down from Q112 due to macroeconomic factors. Risk/Reward Rating: Japan's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) score for Q312, 75.5, is unchanged from Q212, underlining its status as the most attractive market in Asia Pacific. The country scores highly for every major category of the proprietary ratings system. It is only let down by two of the 15 sub-categories, namely market growth and population growth. Key Trends And Developments ???? In March 2012, Asahi Kasei said it will purchase the US medical equipment producer Zoll Medical for US$2.21bn to increase its focus on the global healthcare business and decrease its dependence on its chemicals and fibres operations. Asahi Kasei wants to extend its business footprint in the US.
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