Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/09/2015 -- Growth in the Polish mining sector will be modest over the coming years. The coal sector will be overhauled as the government seeks to either restructure or close unprofitable mines. Copper output will struggle as falling copper ore grades and weak prices are set to hinder growth. Nevertheless, the rate of growth we forecast indicates that the country will remain one of the most significant players in the European coal, silver and copper markets.

Downside Risks

The main downside risks to our forecasts are weak copper and coal prices, cheap coal imports and labour unrest in the sector. Due to our view for a sharp slowdown in Chinese economic growth and expectation for increased copper supply, we expect lower copper prices over coming years. We forecast copper prices to average USD6,450/tonne over 2014-2018, significantly lower than their 2011 average of USD8,826/tonne. Combined with falling ore grades in Poland, these lower prices will significantly disincentive investment in the sector. Lower commodity prices will also have the effect of squeezing miners' margins, precipitating cutbacks and thus heightening the risk of industrial unrest. Poland's mining sector is comprised of strong unions and as such we highlight tense wage negotiations and potential strikes to affect the sector over coming years.

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The government's announcement in Q414 of its plans to split the coal sector into economically viable and unviable mines is likely to dent production growth over the coming years. Economically viable coal mines will be developed and invested in, while the mines deemed unviable will either be restructured or forced to close. It is estimated that only 1 in 3 Polish coal mines is profitable at current prices.

New Entrants

Dutch miner New World Resources (NWR) received approval from its board of directors to extract coal from the Debiensko mine in Poland. A feasibility study indicates that...

The Poland Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Poland Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Poland.

Key Benefits

- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Poland's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI?s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (?000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (?000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

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