Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/10/2014 -- Following nine straight quarters of contraction, we forecast real GDP growth in Italy to reach 0.4% and 0.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. With one of the highest household savings rates in Europe prior to the crisis, and among the lowest private debt burdens, private consumption has not been a strong driver of GDP growth in the past decade. We do not expect this trend to change, and forecast private consumption growth of 0.3% and 0.7% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. This has negative implications for food and drink spending, although we do expect to see an improvement in this over our forecast period.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2014 per capita food consumption = +0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013 to 2018 = +1.1%
- 2014 alcoholic drink value sales = +1.7%; CAGR 2013 to 2018 = +2.1%
- 2014 soft drink value sales = +0.9% ; CAGR 2013 to 2018 = +2.3%
- 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +0.8%; CAGR 2013 to 2018 = +1.4%
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Key Industry Trends And Developments
Jackson Family Wines Targets Italy For M&As In 2014: US-based Jackson Family Wines is planning to make further acquisitions in 2014 with Italy as its primary target in a drive to boost growth, reports justdrinks, citing the group's president Rick Tigner. This comes as the company believes it is 'very strong financially' and interest rates are at an all-time low. This follows the company's newly acquired 2,000-acre Tenuta di Arceno estate in Italy and its first US property outside California, in Oregon.
Nestle Looks To Ferrero for Growth: There were reports in autumn 2013 that Swiss giant Nestle had approached Italian confectionery manufacturer Ferrero in an attempt to gauge interest over a possible acquisition. Ferrero has since replied, stating that its business 'is not for sale in the most categorical and absolute manner'. A takeover of Ferrero, however, would represent an excellent move from Nestle, which is hoping to expand its confectionery business.
Campari Acquires Rights For Premium Gin Brand: In November 2013 Campari gained the distribution rights for Bulldog Gin, an independently owned brand with a leading position in the premium gin segment. According to the agreement, starting in 2014 and lasting through to 2020, Campari will distribute Bulldog Gin in the duty-free channel worldwide and in most of the markets where Campari has its own marketing and sales organisations, including the US. For Campari the agreement represents an opportunity to become a key player in the super premium gin category in key markets by acquiring the distribution of a superpremium brand with growth potential, and the option to eventually acquire the brand.
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