Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 02/21/2014 -- We continue to favour Ukraine's grain sector and expect increases in production and more diversity in export demand. While the EU has recently authorised imports of Ukrainian poultry, which will support export growth over the medium term, we do not see a similar opening for dairy exports in the near term. We therefore expect weaker dairy consumption growth, with growth coming strictly from domestic demand. We have revised down our forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth in the near term and believe this will impact in particular demand for meat and dairy products, as they tend to be considered less of a staple food than grains. We highlight MHP's strong growth potential as the main beneficiary of our positive outlook for the local poultry industry.
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- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 38.5% to 29.1mn tonnes. We are turning more optimistic on potential output growth on the back of increased investment in the country.
- Poultry consumption growth to 2018: 17.2% to 982,400 tonnes. Poultry demand will benefit from improving domestic income conditions as well as its preferred status as a cheaper and healthier alternative to red meat.
- Milk production growth to 2017/18: 14.9% to 13.2mn tonnes. Over the medium term, consolidation and increased investment are expected to start to compensate for industry exits, with production rising steadily over the forecast period to 2016/17.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 0.4%, up from -1.4% in 2013. Predicted to average 1.3% from 2013 to 2017.
- 2014 consumer price inflation: 6.2% average, up from 2.0% in 2013.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to US$42.9bn in 2013/14, forecast to grow on average 2.7% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.
Key Revisions To Forecasts
- Wheat: 2014/15 production revised up to 22.0mn tonnes (from 21.0mn tonnes) in line with first official plantings forecasts.
- Corn: 2013/14 production revised up to 30.0mn tonnes (from 22.0mn tonnes) in line with the latest official estimates. 2014/15 output revised up to 27.4mn tonnes (from 24.4mn tonnes) on base effects and initial plantings estimates.
- Barley: 2014/15 production revised down to 7.3mn tonnes (from 8.8mn tonnes) as less area will be dedicated to the crop.
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