Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 07/07/2014 -- The government views agribusiness in Kazakhstan as one of the key future pillars of the economy, and as a result the sector is the target of major investment and policy initiatives. We see poultry and beef production as the big winners, with large-scale financial assistance particularly helpful in modernising these high-cost industries. The effect on grain production will be more complex as feed grains are now being heavily subsidised at the expense of wheat. This will make the grains sub-sector less reliant on exports and more dependent on demand from livestock producers. However, we still see scope for wheat output (driven by increasing yields) and exports both increasing over the coming years.
- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 41.8% to 709,500 tonnes. Corn will benefit from an increase in government subsidies (up 300% year-on-year in 2014) in a bid to promote feed grains. Demand from the livestock sector is the key growth driver.
- Cheese consumption growth to 2018: 35.7% to 85,300 tonnes. This will be a result of increased demand for value-added dairy products on the back of accelerating urbanisation and improvements in infrastructure.
- Poultry production growth to 2018: 88.0% to 235,000 tonnes. Government support for the sector will help to see rapid expansion, albeit not nearly fast enough to keep up with domestic demand.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 5.5%, up from 5.4% in 2013; forecast to be 5.8% in 2015.
- 2014 average consumer price inflation: 5.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 4.8% y-o-y in 2013; forecast to be 6.2% in 2015.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 13.1% y-o-y increase to USD7.1bn in 2013/14, forecast to grow on average 6.2% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.
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Key Revisions To Forecasts
- Wheat production to 2017/18: 53.9% to 15.2mn tonnes, down from a previous forecast of 18.8mn tonnes. We expect growth over the coming...
The Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Kazakhstan.
Industry SWOT Analysis
At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2017 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.
Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI's Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.
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