Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/12/2014 -- CORE VIEWS:
- Kazakh economic activity will slow in 2014 and 2015 as production issues at the Kashagan oil field hurt export revenues and private consumption is constrained by rising inflation. However, the outlook over our 10-year forecast period has improved, with the government committing USD5.5bn to promoting economic diversification, a crucial step in weaning Kazakhstan off its hydrocarbon reliance.
- The increasing frequency of ethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan will continue to damage the country's security profile. This will in turn discourage long-term foreign investment and threaten the longevity of the government in Bishkek.
- Tajikistan faces two significant security threats in the years ahead; the return of Islamic insurgents following the ISAF withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the escalation of border tensions with Kyrgyzstan. These threats will lead to the government forging closer ties with Russia, which already has troops in Tajikistan, while also seeking further security support from rising power in the region, China.
- Rising natural gas export revenues will continue to support strong economic growth in Turkmenistan over the course of our 10-year forecast period. While an end to petrol subsidies will likely constrain private consumption growth, this will be more than offset by production from the vast Galkynysh gas field and rising fixed investment from China, the largest investor in Turkmenistan's hydrocarbons sector.
- We do not see the recent limited transfer of powers to the Prime Minister in Uzbekistan as a sign that President Islam Karimov has outlined a clear succession strategy or is willing to de-centralise power from his office. While we expect Karimov to remain in power following 2015 presidential elections, uncertainty regarding succession will continue to damage the country's investment profile.
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MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES
- Tajikistan's exposure to the Russian economy will dampen economic growth over the coming quarters....
The Kazakhstan & Central Asia Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
- Forecast the pace and stability of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
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