Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/01/2014 -- We expect the Lithuanian pharmaceutical market to post a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4%, rising to a value of LTL2.16bn (US$751mn) in 2018. While double-digit annual growth rates are firmly in the past, some opportunities continue to exist in light of epidemiological factors and an ageing population. The upcoming switch to the euro promises to boost purchasing power and stabilise the pharmaceutical market. However, the Lithuanian market will continue to represent a modest opportunity for drugmakers due to its absolute small size relative to its neighbouring markets.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: LTL1.74bn (US$667mn) in 2013 to LTL1.80bn (US$663mn) in 2014; +3.3% in local currency terms and -0.6% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: LTL7.72bn (US$2.95bn) in 2013 to LTL8.03bn (US$2.96bn) in 2014; +4.0% in local currency terms and +0.1% in US dollar terms.
Lithuania remains ranked in the bottom half of the matrix assessing 20 countries in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. We note that Lithuania's small population will continue to restrict longer-term opportunities in its pharmaceutical market, despite its solid risks profile and a predictable operating environment. We therefore hold to our view that Lithuania's overall Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score will not change drastically over the coming quarters.
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Key Trends and Developments
- Pharmaceutical companies and the Lithuanian government have affirmed their commitment to improve patients' access to innovative drugs.
- Lithuania's brightening economic outlook in 2014 and the liberalisation of the OTC retail market will spur OTC medicine growth.
BMI Economic View: Real GDP growth in Lithuania will accelerate to 3.6% in 2014 from an estimated 3.0% in 2013 due to a brightening domestic demand outlook. While export growth should accelerate in line with improving growth prospects in Lithuania's trading partners, this will be offset by import growth, making the net export contribution to overall growth negative.
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