Strong growth in the non-hydrocarbon economy, stemming from extensive construction activity and the rapid expansion of the services sector, will drive economic activity over 2014 and 2015. We forecast real GDP of 5.4% this year and 5.0% in 2015, from an estimated 5.7% in 2013. Downside risks remain limited at this stage, but include the potential for delays in the construction sector and an ongoing political dispute between Qatar and the rest of the Gulf. We forecast real private consumption growth of 11.0% in 2014 and 8.0% in 2015, up from an average of 6.2% in 2009-12. The country's fast-rising resident population, on the back of high demand for foreign workers in preparation for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, will help to fuel growth in the consumer sector, including the food and drink sector.