Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/16/2014 -- We forecast that electricity generation in Malaysia will grow by 4.7% in 2014. This is lower than our growth estimate for 2013, owing to the poor economic outlook and an impending increase in the price of electricity. We retain our modest long-term outlook for the sector as we expect economic growth, positive demographics, and an improving business environment to drive growth beyond 2014. Our long-term outlook for the Malaysian power sector remains relatively sanguine (at 4.5% average growth per annum between 2013 and 2023) as we expect modest economic growth to drive electricity consumption and generation. This growth potential is encapsulated in the country's Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), announced by the government in September 2010. The programme is aimed at attracting US$444bn worth of investments between 2011 and 2020, and the uncertainties towards the ETP are dissipating due to the return to power by the Barisan Nasional coalition As most of the projects under the ETP are located in Peninsular Malaysia, electricity demand for the region is likely to surge should these projects be realised.
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Key Trends And Developments
- The first liquefied natural gas regasification (LNG) terminal commenced operations in Melaka LNG near Sungai Udang in early 2013 and received its first cargo in April. The government has introduced a number of policies and incentives for renewable energy producers. The country's Sustainable Energy Development Agency (SEDA) is responsible for a number of these programmes and regularly releases new data on capacity approvals.
- The government has given the go-ahead to begin identifying suitable sites for the country's first nuclear power plant. A budget of US$7bn has reportedly been allocated to the nuclear scheme, which, according to Minister of Energy, Green Technology and Water Peter Chin Fah Kui, is expected to start operations in 2021.
- The country's energy sector is set to become more competitive, following the Electricity Commission's decision to hold a new power generation tender exercise to replace Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with first generation Independent Power Producers expiring in 2016/17. The PPAs would be awarded and renewed based on the lowest cost of electricity generation, with only 50% of existing PPAs to be renewed.
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