Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 12/12/2012 -- We expect Malaysia's electricity sector to grow modestly over our five-year forecast period, driven largely by a rapidly growing population and increasing prosperity. However, we highlight that the sector is set to become more competitive, as the government attempts to rein in electricity prices and subsidies while keeping a larger share of natural gas resources for domestic use.
We expect total electricity generation in Malaysia to reach 122TWh in 2012, representing an increase of 4.3% from 2011 levels. Thermal generation will be the main driver of growth, underpinned by strong growth in coal and natural gas generation (5.5% and 4.0% in 2012 respectively). An abundance of natural gas resources in the country has made it the dominant fuel for electricity generation, and we expect it to account for 63.0% of total electricity generation in 2012.
We expect total power generation in the country to grow at an annual average rate of 4.7% from 122TWh in 2012 to 184.6TWh in 2021. Thermal power generation will remain the most dominant form of energy in the country, increasing its share of total power generation from 92.0% in 2012 to 92.9% in 2021. Coal power generation is set to grow at an annual average rate of 5.2% from 33.4TWh in 2012 to 52.3TWh in 2021. Natural gas power generation is set to grow at an annual average rate of 4.7% from 76.9TWh in 2012 to 117.0TWh in 2021. Key trends and recent developments in the Malaysian electricity market include:
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- The government has recently given the go-ahead to begin identifying suitable sites for the country's first nuclear power plant. A budget of US$7bn has reportedly been allocated to the nuclear scheme, which, according to Peter Chin Fah Kui, minister of energy for green technology and water, is expected to start operations in 2021.
- The country's energy sector is set to become more competitive, following the Electricity Commission's decision to hold a new power generation tender exercise to replace PPAs with first generation IPPs expiring in 2016/17. The PPAs would be awarded and renewed based on the lowest cost of electricity generation, and only 50% of existing PPAs would be renewed.
- GAS SUPPLY
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