Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 08/31/2012 -- BMI View: Australia will increasingly look towards price-containment policies as the rising burden of non-communicable diseases (associated with the increasingly ageing population) will escalate the government's expenditure on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). This is coupled with lacklustre growth in the economy. On the upside, eldercare providers (hospitals, medical devices suppliers and pharmaceutical firms) will see growth opportunities due to the ageing population. In addition, we note that generic drug suppliers will see further upside if the country promotes generic drug use to lower pharmaceutical costs.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: AUD12.85bn (US$13.27bn) in 2011 to AUD12.99bn (US$12.48bn) in 2012; +1.1% in local currency terms and -6.0% in US dollar terms due to exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast broadly in line with Q312.
- Healthcare: AUD122.27bn (US$126.22bn) in 2011 to AUD126.94bn (US$121.89bn) in 2012; +3.8% in local currency terms and -3.4% in US dollar terms due to exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast broadly in line with previous quarter.
- Medical devices: AUD5.57bn (US$5.75bn) in 2011 to AUD5.80bn (US$5.57bn) in 2012; +4.1% in local currency terms and -3.2% in US dollar terms due to exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast upgraded due to the receipt of new historic trade data.
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Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Q412 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Australia maintains its overall RRR score of 66.2. However, its ranking in the Asia Pacific has fallen from second to the third out of 18 countries, as South Korea's RRR went up. Nevertheless, Australia's RRR is still significantly higher than the regional average of 53.3 due to factors such as extensive urbanisation, a proper legal framework and the lack of corruption.
Key Trends And Developments
- The AUD1bn Personally Controlled Electronic Health Record (PCEHR) system went live on July 1 following the announcement of regulations. Before the launch, software developers had two days to carry out testing of the system. The entire testing of the PCEHR system has been undertaken by utilising test data, which included fictitious demographic and healthcare identifier details. The PCEHR will bring key components of patients' health information together in a unified, electronic record. The PCEHR system provides registered users and their healthcare providers with access to a summary of their medical history. The main intention is to enable healthcare providers to make better decisions about patient treatment.
- On May 8 2012, the federal government released its 2012/2013 budget, laying out plans to return to a budget surplus in 2012/13 of AUD1.5bn (US$1.5bn). Under the budget, the government will contribute AUD61bn (US$61.4bn) for healthcare.
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