Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 12/11/2012 -- Drought has taken a greater-than-expected toll on the 2012/13 Kazakh wheat harvest, and we forecast production to slump to 11.0mn tonnes, with only 7mn tonnes projected to be exported and domestic consumers feeling the squeeze as flour prices soar. The livestock sector is expected to escape the worst of the effects, as the local corn harvest has held up well and the government has set aside feed grains to aid farmers, although dairy yields are expected to suffer from the deterioration of grazing pastures.
- Wheat production to 2016/17: -13.0% to 19.8mn tonnes. Efforts to diversify into oilseeds and other field crops and the likely lack of a repeat of the perfect conditions of 2011/12 will see production fall over our five-year forecast period.
- Butter consumption growth to 2017: 65.3% to 73,400 tonnes. This will come from increased demand for dairy value-added products on the back of accelerating urbanisation and improvements in infrastructure.
- Beef production growth to 2016/17: 35.7% to 576,700 tonnes. The comprehensive overhaul of the beef herd continues apace as imported breeding stocks improve quality.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 5.8%, up from 5.3% in 2012.
- 2013 average consumer price inflation: 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 6.2% y-o-y in 2012.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 28.5% y-o-y decrease to US$7.5bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 8.7% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.
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Severe drought has reduced our expectations for the recently completed 2012/13 wheat harvest to such an extent that we now forecast a 51.6% y-o-y decrease to 11.0mn tonnes. It should be noted, however, that this decline is exaggerated in severity, as it follows 2011/12's post-Soviet era record 22.7mn tonnes of wheat harvested.
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