Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 09/04/2012 -- BMI View: We continue to hold our subdued outlook for the Lithuanian pharmaceuticals market during the next few years, on account of the changing economic and demographic situation. While volume demand will be pushed up by the country's ageing population and its morbidity profile, public contribution to healthcare spending will continue to decline, with fiscal austerity measures expected to remain in place for the foreseeable future. We therefore forecast generic medicines' value share of the total market rising from 41.8% calculated for 2011 to over 45.5% in 2016.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: LTL1.64bn (US$659mn) in 2011 to LTL1.7bn (US$648mn) in 2012; +2.0% in local currency terms and -1.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower from Q212, on account of worsening macroeconomic outlook.
- Healthcare: LTL6.98bn (US$2.81bn) in 2011 to LTL7.20bn (US$2.80bn) in 2012; +3.0% in local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q212.
- Medical devices: LTL680mn (US$273mn) in 2011 to LTL750mn (US$291mn) in 2012; +10.3% in local currency terms and +6.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased from Q212, on account of new historical data.
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Risk/Reward Rating: In our Q312 Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) matrix, Lithuania slipped by one place to 15th, out of the 20 markets surveyed in Emerging Europe, on account of a 3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) decrease in its composite score. Although Lithuania boasts a largely risk-free operating environment, its muted rewards prospects will continue to impact its standing in the regional matrix. Globally, Lithuania ranks 54th out of the 95 markets surveyed in total.
Key Trends & Developments
- In April 2012, Lithuanian biopharmaceuticals company, Sicor Biotech, was reported to be planning to build a new facility in Vilnius to double its production capacity. The company aims to export about 95% of the biopharmaceuticals produced in the new facility, which is due for completion by the end of 2013. The new plant, which has attracted foreign investment of EUR22.6mn (US$29.5mn), is designed to strengthen the country's position as a high-tech centre in the Baltic and Nordic region.
BMI Economic View: Lithuania's economy remains on track to experience sharply lower growth in 2012 as the external sector is hit by poor economic sentiment in the West and the prospect of further escalation in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. A weakening domestic consumer further reaffirms our forecast for just 0.4% real GDP growth in 2012, down from 5.9% in 2011.
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