Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/01/2014 -- Macedonia's economic recovery will gradually shift into a higher gear as stronger industrial activity increases demand for labour and household consumption growth accelerates. For the time being, there is little to suggest that stronger external demand for Macedonian manufactured goods is driving fixed investment into productive capacity, preventing a more robust recovery.
Macedonia's coalition government looks set to fall apart over the nomination of a presidential candidate for elections in April, and the dissolution is likely to trigger an early general election. We have long suggested that an early election looked likely; however, we do not expect it to destabilise the country politically.
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With low borrowing costs and a favourable maturity profile, we believe that Macedonia's public debt position is sustainable, with limited risks of instability over the coming years.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised up our real GDP growth forecast for 2014 from 2.0% to 2.6%, and have lowered our 2013 growth estimate from 3.0% to 2.4%.
We have modified our current account forecast and now expect a deficit of 1.5% in 2014, from a previous projection for a 3.0% deficit.
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