Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 11/16/2012 -- We are relatively optimistic about the near-term domestic demand conditions in Malaysia. Cash handouts targeted at around 5.2mn lower-income households should help support private consumption, particularly in the mass-market segment. Moderating price pressures and scope for monetary loosening from the Malaysian government should also provide a boost to demand conditions in the country. Therefore, we believe domestic demand in Malaysia is likely to outperform the broader economy for the foreseeable future. However, we acknowledge intensifying global headwinds and a property price correction as major downside risks to our private consumption outlook for Malaysia.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 food consumption = +2.3%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2016 = +2.9%
- 2012 soft drinks value sales = +4.7%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +5.0%
- 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.3%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +4.6%
- 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +6.9%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +8.2%
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Key Industry Trends
BMI Confident About Dutch Lady Milk's FY2012 Earnings Prospects: In April 2012, Malaysia-based beverage firm Dutch Lady Milk Industries reported strong growth in both revenue and earnings for the year ending December 2011. More noteworthy is the company's improvement in its operating margins, which is a remarkable showing given the backdrop of an inflationary environment in FY2011. Given its strong pricing power and ability to generate cost efficiencies, we continue to see reasons to be optimistic about Dutch Lady's FY2012 earnings prospects.
Aeon Could Look To Discount Retailing And Fresh Foods For Untapped Opportunities: International expansion has long been a strategic priority for Japanese retailer Aeon. Aeon is accelerating its expansions across emerging markets such as Vietnam as it struggles to contend with subdued domestic demand conditions. While Malaysia's long-term retail prospects do not compare as favourably to Vietnam, it is nonetheless an important growth market for Aeon, and Aeon Malaysia should benefit from its parent company's expansionary ambitions. As the Malaysian mass grocery retail (MGR) market edges towards maturity and greater consolidation, the sub-sectors of fresh food produce, private labels and discount retailing should provide enticing growth opportunities for Aeon in the longer term.
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