Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 06/12/2014 -- We are forecasting real GDP growth of 6.3% for the Philippines in 2014, as we expect domestic demand to remain strong and export sector growth to see a modest rebound this year. While we are optimistic about its growth prospect, we remain wary of any renewed global volatility that will pose downside risks to our growth forecast.
Despite the devastating impact of Typhoon Yolanda in the Visayas back in November, the Philippines' real GDP growth for the final quarter (October-December period) still managed to come in at a reasonably healthy clip of 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), and this is largely attributed to the strong growth seen in the manufacturing and services sectors, which grew by 12.3% y-o-y and 6.5% y-o-y in the quarter respectively. In turn, full-year GDP growth arrived at an impressive 7.2%, making the Philippines one of the fastest growing economies in Asia.
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Going forward, we remain optimistic about the prospect of a continuation in the current growth momentum, as we believe domestic demand will remain strong and the export sector will likely see a rebound this year. Indeed, manufacturing sector growth is likely to continue from where it left off last year. As such, we are forecasting real GDP growth of 6.3% for the Philippines this year.
The freight mix in the Philippines is set to enjoy healthy growth levels in 2014. The air and shipping freight sectors are set to enjoy a good 12 months, with the former mode set to expand at the highest rate per annum (5.58% y-o-y). In the shipping sector, the Port of Cebu is pencilled in to see higher y-o-y tonnage growth in 2014 than its regional peer the Port of MICT (4.50% compared with 4.00% respectively).
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 air freight tonnage forecast to grow 5.58% to 755,000 tonnes.
- 2014 Port of Cebu tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 4.50% to 29.39mn tonnes.
- 2014 Port of MICT tonnage throughput forecast to increase 4.00% to 21.76mn tonnes.
- 2014 total trade forecast to grow 5.30%, with exports...
The Philippines Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine freight transport and logistics industry.
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