Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 04/22/2014 -- In 2014, BMI forecasts total vehicle sales in Poland to increase 6.7%, to some 376,711 units. This comes on the back of a forecasted 7% increase in passenger car sales and 5.1% increase in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment.
Passenger car sales in Poland increased 11.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January, to 29,181 units. BMI forecasts 7% growth over the year, on the back of improvements in the consumer story combined with pentup demand and low base effects in the first half of the year.
Despite a large decline earlier in 2013, the country's car market saw a resurgence in the latter part of the year, bringing the full growth rate to 6%. This surge in passenger car sales over the course of the year was on the back of broader improvements in the country's consumer story, which we expect to continue into 2014.
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In 2013, light commercial vehicle sales increased 7.1%, to 42,182 units, and heavy trucks increased 20%, to 19,715 units. Economic data suggest that the country's manufacturing and industrial sectors resurged on the back of export-led growth to Europe. Furthermore, construction activity picked-up in the latter part of the year. These dynamics helped buoy wider economic activity in Poland, and we believe they have been the primary driver of the uptick in CV sales over the year. In 2014, we expect these dynamics to continue to boost CV sales, and accordingly forecast the LCV segment to increase 5.8% and the heavy truck segment to increase 3.8% over the year.
Vehicle production has declined sharply in Poland in recent years; passenger output is the main driver in volumes terms, and it is mostly export-orientated. Sales across Europe, the country's main trading partner, have been generally weak and sales volumes remain low. Having said that, however, the regional passenger car market has shown some signs of resurgence in recent months, and this has helped moderate declines in Poland vehicle output. CV production is primarily for the domestic market, and this has remained fairly strong throughout the year.
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