Fast Market Research

Market Report, "Romania Business Forecast Report Q2 2014", Published

Fast Market Research recommends "Romania Business Forecast Report Q2 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available

 

Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/01/2014 -- Core Views Romania's economic recovery will move onto an increasingly solid footing in 2014, with export-led growth finally translating into substantive improvements in consumer spending. We forecast growth to come in at an above-consensus 2.8%.

Although Romania's political system will remain reasonably stable by historical standards in 2014, political instability looks set to increase on the back of the Liberal Party leaving the ruling Social-Liberal Union (USL) coalition.

Despite strong exports, the current account deficit will widen to 1.5% of GDP in 2014, driven by recovering imports and increased profit repatriation from foreign corporations operating in the country. Romania's fiscal outlook is unlikely to cause the country any significant problems over the next few years, with a manageable public debt load and the ruling USL coalition unlikely to veer away from fiscal prudence.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

Romania's interest rate cutting cycle looks to have come to an end, with the country's policy rate likely to stay at 3.50% for the remainder of 2014.

Romania's banking sector will continue shrinking in 2014, as lending is held back by tight credit standards and weak corporate deposit growth. That said, healthy capital buffers imply that the sector remains relatively well-positioned to deal with any domestic or international shocks.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our forecast for the current account deficit down to 1.5% in 2014, from 0.9% previously, due to expectations of a faster pickup in import demand.

Key Risks To Outlook

The main risk to our outlook is for a slower-than-anticipated pickup in private consumption over the coming quarters. With exports booming and accommodative monetary conditions laying the foundations for a pickup in domestic demand, we would be tempted to downgrade our forecasts for Romanian growth if leading and high frequency indicators point towards a more sluggish pickup in domestic demand in the first few months of 2014.

About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Chile Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Hungary Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Croatia Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Russia Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Canada Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Albania Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- Lithuania Business Forecast Report Q2 2014
- United States Business Forecast Report Q2 2014