Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 05/05/2014 -- Following a year in which BMI saw mixed dynamics across Russia's freight transport sector, 2014 will signal growth in all freight modes in line with the macroeconomic outlook for the country.
Total trade is projected to pick up, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 4.65% in 2014 following estimated growth of 3.75% in 2013.
Rail freight is expected to continue dominating the sector in terms of turnover and is projected to grow by 2% in 2014. We are seeing a consolidation of players in this freight transport mode, with major mining and steel producing firms selling their transport subsidiaries, and major private logistics players developing in Russia's rail freight system.
We also highlight the impact that the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will have on this year's results. All freight modes are set to benefit, specifically those in the Krasnodar region.
We view the port of Ust-Luga's recent announcement concerning the total throughput for 2013 as a positive sign of its future evolution from being the port of St Petersburg's overflow to becoming a container gateway port in its own right. The announcement followed another one from Russian Railways concerning their development of the port of Ust-Luga's railroad and stations. We believe that these developments will facilitate the port's throughout target of 180mn tonnes when it reaches full capacity.
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The final theme is Russia's recent membership of the WTO. As President Vladimir Putin has highlighted, the benefits of an uptick in trade volumes won't be felt straight away, but we believe Russia's freight transport sector will start to feel a positive impact over the medium term.
Headline Industry Data
- 2014 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.4%
- 2014 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 2.1%
- 2014 Port of St Petersburg throughput is forecast to grow by 1.3%
- 2014 Road freight is forecast to grow by 2.4%
- 2014 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 1.9%
- 2014 Total real trade growth is forecast at 4.7%.
Key Industry Trends
Ust-Luga Logistics Developments Will Lead To Larger Loads: The port of Ust-Luga has announced that it reached 62.6mn tonnes of cargo throughput in 2013, a y-o-y increase of 34%. This figure reflects the prevailing trend of strong growth seen since the port opened. To further facilitate this process, the port operators are considering a number of expansions into the adjacent land surrounding the port. Another announcement, from Russian Railways (RZD), emphasised that the port's transhipment logistics will also receive a sizeable investment, ensuring that the railway volumes at the port will continue to record strong growth.
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