Boston, MA -- (ReleaseWire) -- 10/08/2012 -- BMI View: Swedish IT spending is expected to reach US$15.8bn in 2012, down 3%, with BMI downwardly revising its forecast as the possibility of a eurozone recession is expected to mean more moderate growth in IT spending. The IT market is expected to grow, but consumer and business confidence are vulnerable to external economic developments, particularly in the eurozone. Drivers of Swedish IT spending in 2012 should include purchases of computers for schools, a new national digital agenda and growing interest in cloud computing services.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: US$3.4bn in 2011 to US$3.3bn in 2012, -3.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but there should be a stimulus from the iPad3 and Ultrabooks.
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Software sales: US$5.2bn in 2011 to US$5.1bn in 2012, -2.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to analyst modification although cloud computing services such as software-as-a-service (SaaS) are likely to be used more in Sweden over BMI's forecast period. IT services sales: US$7.7bn in 2011 to US$7.5bn in 2012, -3.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to analyst modification, but there should more spending by sectors such as financial services, retail and telecoms.
Risk/Reward Ratings: Sweden's score was 75.9 out of 100.0. Sweden ranks third in our latest Europe RRR table, behind Germany and the UK, but ahead of France and CEE countries. The country also had the third highest Industry Rewards score of 63.3, and its overall ranking further benefited from a high Country Rewards score of 90.
Key Trends & Developments.
- In 2012, continuing economic uncertainty in Europe and tight credit conditions have the potential to hamper demand in the medium term, but there will be opportunities in verticals such as retail and financial services. With the eurozone crisis looming large, we believe that Swedish businesses will be less likely to invest in IT in the quarters ahead.
- The consumer PC segment is also expected to report slower growth in 2012, with durable goods purchases slowing during 2011. Disposable income is growing slowly, with minimal overall wage pressure. By our calculations, real wages contracted in every month in 2011, and this likely took a toll on purchases of consumer lifestyle products such as PCs and tablets.
- The government's broad consultations on a new digital agenda are likely to create opportunities in various segments, ranging from healthcare to education and enterprise. Meanwhile, cloud computing is gradually being adopted across the public and private sectors, with a number of new cloud-based services launched in 2011.
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