Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/26/2015 -- Positive Growth Expected In 2015

Thailand's freight industry will see positive growth in 2015, after a difficult 2014. In terms of cargo volumes, we expect increases in a range of roughly 2% to 7% depending on the transport mode, after a mixed 2014, during which a number of modes experiencing volume reductions. In 2015 the strongest growth rates will be in bulk tonnage handled in the ports and in rail freight; airfreight and road haulage will be somewhat more subdued.

We are forecasting a recovery in Thailand's economic outlook 2015, with GDP set to increase by 4.1%, after an almost standstill year in 2014. According to our estimates, 2014 will have been weaker than initially hoped, with growth of only 0.7%. This was due to a combination of factors. Despite ongoing efforts by the ruling junta to stabilise the political situation and stimulate the economy, the recovery was slow to gain traction. Negatives included a subdued export and investment performance, along with depressed construction and manufacturing sectors (particularly automobiles). Yet going into 2015 we see growth-positive factors finally beginning to feed through. These include the beneficial effect of lower oil prices (Thailand imports 85% of its crude oil consumption), a gradual recovery in tourism, fiscal stimulus and government moves to speed up the infrastructure investment approval process. There are still challenges ahead, with high household indebtedness and the continuing threat of political volatility among them. In the medium term to 2019 we expect average annual GDP growth of 4.0%.

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Headline Industry Data

- Gross tonnage at Laem Chabang, the country's largest port, is set to rise by 6.7% to 64.437mn tonnes in 2015, and will average growth of 6.1% a year over our medium-term forecast period to 2019.
- At the Port of Bangkok, BMI projects that tonnage will grow by 3.7% in 2015, to 20.105mn tonnes.
- We forecast the real value of foreign trade to grow 5.2% in 2015, with imports up by 5.3%...

The Thailand Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Thailand Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI?s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top 5 import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn).
- Port Data: Throughput (?000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%).

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